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rvajna

8,538 Posts.

614

07/08/19

03:19

Post #: 39893346
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Originally posted by airconditioner: ↑

Who knows the asset valuations here?

I don't think its an exact science but I think many are being unreasonably dismissive to suit their agendas.
Share price performance has been awful
but the analysis has been even worse.

We are at peak Lithium Ignorance now.

Yeah the market is "right" now and it will be "right" in 6 months time. It was "right" 6 months and 18 months ago too.
Its just a data point. Its real when you buy or sell.
But to say that this is sitting at a fair valuation after 19 months of heavy shorting
and 65m shorts still to buy their shares back?

Let's find out what the "right" price is when shorts are sitting at 2% rather than 15% of the registry
or when share holders are looking at a take over.
How much will Ausbil accept to vote it through? Retail? Management?

A lot more than this mate.

Do you worship the poster who posts his low ball valuations 20 times a day - but doesn't know what EBITDA means
and expects that his valuation should be considered more trustworthy than the "consensus" methods (meaning people that know what EBITDA means).

How about this little fact -
Galaxy bought SDV and James Bay back in 2012 for $100m by taking over Lithium One.
Back then lithium for batteries wasn't even a thing and lithium was about $4000/t.
The entire lithium industry could have met together in a small pub and the topic of industrial grease would still have been a hot topic.

Now in 2019 there are 100 gigafactories under construction with nearly half completed or near completion.
They are demanding a very high grade product to produce EVs with good range and safety.
VW is spending $3.6b in Germany alone to fit out 3 plants for EVs.
Nobody can even keep track of the full scope of the current lithium sector expansion.

So as of some time ago - apparently those Galaxy tenements became worth nothing at all.
Gimme a break.
POSCO valued a portion of SDV at $400m AUD and are cutting sick with it right now.
That makes SDV worth something.

The only thing going on here in some posts is the equivalent of the Negative Valuation Gymnastics
so that somebody can twist some logic out of what has become absolutely absurd.
"Nobody wants it. Its worth nothing. OK." - that is the sum total of the assessment.
I absolutely disagree.

Even the POSCO deal makes the management worth something.
They can actually sell something at a massive premium to one of the biggest companies in the world.
That's chops, mate.

Since purchasing SDV and JB, GXY have drilled to define JORC, multiple DFS studies, ponds, etc etc.
That is also worth something.
They're not empty real estate.
SDV is under development with ponds being lined.
JB is in last stages of enviro.

Galaxy has enough money in the bank and the plans to build a plant at JB once it gets the go ahead.
Or to commence the chemical plant at SDV.
Or to start smaller and do a modular plant at SDV scaling up over time.
Mt Cattlin is surrounded by a dozens of tenements prospective for spodumene.
Floaters has a strike length of 2km. They'll prove up more LOM as they need it.

That's all. Carry on with your agenda.

Yes - its a complex situation but fundamentals ultimately rule.
That along with the invisible hand of supply and demand,
The newtonian physics of equal and opposite forces
and a big slice of karma.

Expand

No agenda here mate. I guess HC does that to you. Just probing to see where the bottom is.

GXY Price at posting: $1.14 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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