how many pple on this forum have lost money, page-13

Songkla,

Those are pretty pessimistic odds to go bust.

Prior to the meltdown Centro was posting profits around $350m PA so there is a lot of room for increased interest payments and practically no risk of default due to not being able to meet loan repayments unless income falls dramatically. Of course that was never a problem - it is nervous instos wanting their money back in their safe hands that is the problem. If I had a $billion out on loan at the moment I'd want it back to buy up quality like BHP, QBE etc at these low prices with likely over 30% return over the next few years and less risk than a loan to Centro.

Of course to foreclose likely means a 2-4 year wait for the dough as the liquidator trawls through the mire to extract value - so they'll wait to get it back progressively from an intact Centro.

They have real assets which significantly outweigh debt - and as long as any unwinding is orderly shareholders from current prices would still likely get there money back(and likely more) in the event of liquidation.

I hold half to keep and half to trade - hopefully the half to trade will pay for the half to keep with the next bit of positive market sentiment.




Of course some of the instos that are creditors may want their money back to bargain hunt in such a down market and decide to cut off credit.