cru zinc forecast

Seem to be a similar pattern. But Barry Cusack knows best of course.


CRU INDUSTRY & MARKET OUTLOOK

2008 April issue
Zinc Quarterly
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We are more than ever convinced that the world zinc market is on the point of moving into large and prolonged surplus. Mine production is already higher than a global smelter capacity which in turn has long been higher than metal demand. Were it not for the first quarter snows in China, stocks would already be increasing apace. As it is, they will start to mount soon. After stabilising through the early months of this year, LME prices will then resume their decline. Quotations may no longer lose 45% of their January 1st level through the course of this year, but we can still foresee a 40% fall. We expect prices at the end of this year to be little more than $1,400/t. This is just 30% of their late-2006 peak.