Rare earth price report, page-2

Yes the price rose on Friday but less than a third of whatit fell the first 4 days of week. Do you think this wasa dead cat bounce or the beginning of a rally? If the pricessettle in the 300 RMB /KG +- 10 RMB for Nd and PR productswhat does this mean for Lynas? I calculate that thiswould mean a AUD 30M ~ 40M a year profit. There are691M shares outstanding now. 40M / 691M= is a 6 cent /sh profit even at a PE of 30 twice the ASX 200 average. Thatis only a SP AUD 1.80. If we go into a global recession,which many indicators are showing, stock PEs are going to drop for allstocks. and most commodities will drop as well what does thismean for Lynas. In a recessions Gold usually goes up but not manyothers.

At some point in time all stocks follow standard metrics. Lynas has been in production for 6 years now. It is selling for a TMM PE of 89.31. For most manufacturing companies the PE is 5 to 15. With the future of RE I think Lynas deserves a high PE but I do not think 90 will hold. I think 25 is close but that is JMO and is debatable. The PE will drop when the AR is released. Depending on results posibly as low as 45, still well aboue what most minning and manufacturing companies support.