I estimate we need to sell about 30,000 tonnes to have enough cash to meet obligations ($51 million ish outgoing). If (and on recent form it’s a big if) management estimates for cost/pricing prove correct we sneak by and have say $5 million on hand for next quarter - many would then say further capital is needed for sufficient working capital to keep the business ticking over, next quarter much easier without the debt repayment due, but golly we’re tight and have no resilience to weather any unforeseen set backs.
Events over at Alinta show there are those that see the sector approaching a bottom and are thus waiting in the wings opportunistically, such that I doubt going into administration is at all likely, however, they’ll be far from benevolent and the current holders will only see their share eroded as and when rescues occur - indeed this is what SS have done/are doing. All the time we keep sneaking by with dilution the upside keeps getting eroded hence my loss of confidence.
AJM Price at posting:
9.4¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
