AVZ Peer Transparency, page-121

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Roller62

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24/08/19

12:57

Post #: 40133221
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Originally posted by Dr_Manhattan: ↑

Greenbushes has likely done more damage than SQM. They went from exporting 31.5kt in Jan to 76.1kt in July (these are MONTHLY numbers). 76.1kt is 913kt a year. This increase is more than what AJM+PLS output together right now. Being integrated, its SC6 might not be hitting independent converters but its carbonate is likely not helping prices in China. The good quality, low cost mega mine is burying everyone and the only solution is for EV demand growth to catch up.

EV demand really does need to catch up or there really is little hope for any explorer. On the bright side, the past 1.5 years of falling prices and a deteriorating sector has really hurt supply growth. The end in sight is still some time away (at best next year perhaps) and instead of news of new projects getting funded, we are hearing more about delays and scaling back of production. When EV sales really start to bite (2.1 mil last year, 3.5 perhaps this year, 5.2 in 2020...), the supply side might be in for a shock.

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Greenfields have a premium product and the mine has a low operating cost.

What's the other high quality, large deposit, projected low opex on the Planet which has no off take contracts at the moment? I bet lots of battery manufactures are just waiting for the Mets to be finalised and maybe DFS if they can wait that long (doubtful).

AVZ Price at posting: 5.1¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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AVZ Peer Transparency, page-121

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