Banter and General Comments, page-9282

I agree. It is the strangest extended trading pattern for probably the last year. Not at all sure how to read what's happening. If it wasn't for the fact that the whole thing has been manufactured by shorters in the first place, you'd say we had seller exhaustion, but I don't trust that. The buying comes in waves out of seemingly no-where so it looks like the shorters are nervous about leaving big trades on the sell side where they can get cleaned out, and they seem to be doing what I call the "sneaky shorts" where they sell into the buy queue without ever placing the order in the sell queue before hand - hence no attempt at manipulating buyer psychology with big scary orders. When they do occasionally place a scary order they run away as soon as the buyers creep up to them. So the sell queue doesn't reflect the actual sentiment at any point. But even that looks a bit half-hearted - like they expect at any minute that a massive buyer wave will arrive and sweep up the sells.. which it does do a couple of times a day for no apparent reason.

Thursday will be the tell I think. How will they spin the impairment? And will any one care? Its going to be what's in the rest of the report that matters - particularly the market outlook. If that is confident the dam should break upwards - barring any more black swans on the day, which seem to be becoming a bit of a flock at the moment. Another ship booking in the next day or so would be just the thing to set the stage...he said looking at the forecast for the 10th time today.