As of mid this arvo...
Market up 155 points and steaming ahead. Almost triple the 59 points the SFE Futures had predicted this morning. Seems that whoever caused the 60 point fall on Friday (in the face of a 207 point rise on Wall St) has stopped selling and we’ve reversed a lot of the illogical Friday fall.
In the last couple of weeks it seems to be either Resources or Financials that are up whilst the other is down. Today they are both up.
The sentiment does appear to have flip flopped for now.
The SEC’s new rules in the US banning short selling on 19 financial stocks comes into effect today.
June PPI numbers are out – up 1.0% in the June Q….better than the 1.5% expected. Up 4.7% year on year versus forecasts of 5.2%. The A$ dropped a bit on the announcement. We have all important CPI numbers on Wednesday although the indication from the PPI number is that interest rates may well have peaked for now.
Citigroup tell us the upcoming Australian reporting season will be "downbeat rather than disappointing" with FY09 guidance to be the critical factor. They expect to be disappointed by 35 stocks and expect positive earnings surprises from less than half that number. Main themes will be cost pressures, cash flows, currency, geographic exposure and management changes. They say last year’s bad news is already priced in.
Macquarie says the banks are well capitalized with only a low risk of material cuts to dividends. NAB and WBC preferred. They talk about a bear market scenario being flat dividends in 2009. I am tempted to BUY the CBA before their results….just because they are the only major bank with a result and dividend coming up this season. But am loathe to do so having been nailed after their last set of results. The stock fell 14% in a week on a small increase in provisions. Might be better to be in something without results. At least then our optimistic imagination can run wild for a while without hitting the buffers of reality.
Patersons have had enough of some of the massive falls in nickel stocks. They have a recommendation to BUY the Nickel Sulphide stocks. PAN, MCR, IGO, ALB, MBN, WSA on the list. Here is a table showing you how far they have all fallen from the top – the Nickel price is down 60.1%
All in all looks like stability is coming back in which could very well see more attention being given to CFR.
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