Firstly, these markets are some of the choppiest stuff I've seen lol. I'm trading less these days essentially due to final semester of uni absolutely strangling out any spare time, but even I'd imagine if I was trying to play swings in this market most setups would fail from volatility drops. Much more comfortable just holding conviction positions, for now its MEI (free carried), WAF, BSX, OVL, SIS (shocking timing of entry from me), MSE, CR1 and couple position trades on some companies that have been resilient to drops (ie UWL). Current position I've been building is AVH (Chart below).
I remember discussing a year ago you will likely see more asx directors on twitter after people like Musk, Trump, microsoft execs. began using twitter as an informal platform to release news it just somethings punters will have to adjust to. But jeez never imagined it would have this much influence. Trumps using the entire platform to front run global news, especially when the "most powerful man in the world" is borderline bipolar using twitter to front run economic news. One tweet and DOW is 2% down, 24hours later hes best friends with Xi and DOW jumps up 2%.
Trade deal, I dont think it will happen just yet, not over one phone call. Not that easy, they will sit down, renegotiate and we will have to see from there imo. What I'm curious on is the role REE's and gold will play from here going forward. Incredibly interesting environment we are in at the moment.
Another interesting observation is how resilient the XEC has been to the volatility. Usually would be first to be derisked and sell off on global unease, but I guess the Takeovers in spec golds lately (EAR being latest victim heating up the whole youanmi region and players located there), new discoveries in bio's lost count of runners but healthcare/bio majors remain strong, gold (SPX) followed by RXL moneyflow and O&G (STX today driving KEY, NWE) generally pushing in more speculation and money flow.
I think biggest mistakes I've been making lately is selling early. There's many runners atm and its tempting to chase and gain exposure everywhere but I would be much better off just holding few key positions, far less stressful and easier money tbh. Some from top of my head ISX, EAR, RED, PM8, PET, ABR (today after they got financing sorted), PNV (this one was the most painful), BCB (ran 2-3bags from my sale) list goes on..but left plenty on the table on those. For now I'll stop being fidgety and just focus on the handful and take it slow with less FOMO trying to catch a little bit of everything. I guess in a good market many people can pick winners, and anyone can read a chart but the place that can differentiate one from the crowd is the ability to hold or bet big.
Anyways just some charts; Please note most these were taken from yesterday some have moved away from low risk entry points (PNV for example).
EXR: Into supply zone, but the demand is there. Just needs a pullback here and higher lows, so probably worth revisiting next week. Being supported thats for sure, can see HV Push, followed by a spring and now supply at that 4.5 region.
M7T: Lots of healthcare/bios showing strength. M7T one I've been watching. Left the previous markings there at its followed amazingly accurate. Until ofc trump tweeted and now setup looks a bit weaker. Put one more purple line to the right would like to see it hold these levels and try again...hopefully with no tweet at breakout point.
PNV: Ran away today. Now on watch for the PB.
AVH: Been building position cause looks good on weekly and daily. So hopefully can hold onto this one if it behaves unlike what I did on PNV.
UWL Still holding my pilot, will add if it pushes up above blue.
Gold: Short term top in? Some serious climatic action/uptrhust.
XJO: Selling off after bumping its head at top of trendline. No clue where it will settle, still looks lethargic but specs and midcaps still continue showing plenty of life.
DOW: Quite a short term zoomed in chart Chopping all over the place, but overall its in that yellow box, some sharp springs which is a sign of strength. If it does break down from the box I'd assume we would head towards that 24000 region. Upside break would be quite bullish and a huge sign of resilience given all the "recession" talk and global angst.
As for my fundamental holdings, nothing really changed. Happy with how things are progressing with exception of my pick on SIS, crap timing from my end as mentioned above. BSX and MSE have been outperformers and continue to excite me. CR1 copped selling lately but I plan on adding in near future.
Also for those interested, as I mentioned earlier recorded a podcast with Trawling for Ten Baggers. They took a risk on me as their previous guests have all built and dealt with $100's of millions. Here are link to notes which might be useful to some individuals; http://www.trawlingfortenbaggers.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/952i-Podcast-notes.pdf
link to podcast: http://www.trawlingfortenbaggers.com/episode-5-faheem-952i-capital/
(20min delay)