This is an incredible story with so many moving parts that it makes your head spin:
While GXY is certainly in the driving seat I would agree putting it in VA or liquidation come this Thursday when standstill expires would be perilous as GXY could be outbid by someone else in 3 months time when the VA procedure might come to its conclusion.
Also a few open points that will determine if A40 shareholders will have an empty bag or some hope for their equity stake:
- how is the relationship between MC and GXY board? Does MC bring anything to GXY board that would be valuable to them?
- does GXY believe any of the other managers at A40 are worth keeping for their expertise ?
- does GXY have insight into the exploration results ongoing at A40; recall exploration results are not valued here at present as not publcly known
- what is GXY relationship with Jiangte? The Chinese just invested 10M at 0.20, while there clearly no 0.20 AUD/share value here would it make sense to collaborate with Jiangte in future and would they need to 'save face' -aka not write off entire investment?
- how will Jiangte behave regarding its offtake agreement now that Burwill is bust?
- how far advanced are the negotiations with Korean or Japanese offtakers that MC has been boasting about for 9 months?
- how quickly can A40 fine circuit be up an running and at what cost? the fine circuit should dramatically lower A40 cost base
- will GXY be supportive of a rights issue at A40 ?
- will GXY seek board room representation?
- GXY market cap has dropped so much they are at risk of being kicked out of the Index come September, a rapid M&A deal for A40 (part cash, mostly scrip) might boost their mkt value to required levels?
- How valuable are the A40 tax losses to GXY?
-... I am sure there are more considerations to be had here
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