Ann: CTD 2019 Full Year Results, page-93

TheSP fall looks like it has a bit to go as once momentum moves strongly ineither direction its hard to stop.
4 trader show CTD is covered by 8 Analysts. Five downgraded last week and 1 thisweek. The good news is that of the analysts the high price target is $31, themedian target is $27.05 and the low target is $21.50. Those values are after downgrades. So we are well and trulybelow the low price targets at the moment. The latest ratings are 3 buy, 3outperform and 2 hold. So its still regarded as being in pretty good shape. Usuallywhen the SP of a good business diverges so much from analysts estimates sooner or later it findsits way back. There is no guarantee there will be no more downgrades. It depends on how the macro issues pan out. I will consider topping up some future point.
The discounted cashflow is around $23/share value. This is often used as the Intrinsic value of the business.
For these types of businesses TTV conversion to EBITDA is an important guideto profitability and value comparison.
For 2019 CTD had a TTV conversion of 2.3% compared to FLT 1.8%. That means TTV$ for $ CTD was 28% more profitable and efficient than FLT. Taking into accountAsia had a TTV conversion of a tiny 0.9% with plenty of scope to grow (couldeasily double medium term) due to converting clients to online CTD stacks uppretty well. FLT has not breached the low SP target by analysts so CTD is by far way oversold in comparison.
Its wait and see from here. Shows the power of media manipulation.
CTD is pretty well cashed at the moment so expect a debt/cash acquisition in the coming months. They secured around a $A220 million loan facility. An acquisition could well be the catalyst for a move up. Its sure to be EPS accretive and give EBITDA a boost as well. Debt leverages returns so ROE which is already very good will get a further boost.
I note in the recent audit report that they concentrated on some of the main issues raised by the Shorter report such as revenue recognition and impairment. They were ok. The suggested cash flow issues were not looked specifically Likely because they were explained in detail in the Ann dated 8/11/18 and they are very simple to work through compared to the other issues.