Saw the announcement from CSL yesterday re Gardisal sales...still tracking at US$1.5 billion pa which is a massive number for a drug that's been on the market for only a few years...a true blockbuster!
From reading the press this morning CSL states that take up in 19-26 yo had been not as strong as expected and that Merck will adjust its marketing directly towards women rather than just their doctors.
This is exactly the same experience and approach that Digene took with its HPV test. It wasn't until Digene undertook and extensive DTC advertising campaign that sales for its HPV test really took off.
Therefore expect Merck to carpet bomb the airwaves with awareness campaigns about HPV and cervical cancer directly aimed at women. This is a very strong positive for HPV testing.
I also hear that Merck will also include the need for women to continue to undergo usual regular cervical screens in their advertising (via Pap and HPV tests and more so with HPV tests) as there has been significant longer term litigation risk concerns raised for Merck in that they run the risk of women feeling that they are fully protected against cervical cancer after receiving the vaccine and do not proceed for regular pap tests etc.. and then if they contract cervical cancer they sue Merck as they thought (due to its pitch of its advertising) that they were 'protected against cervical cancer'. THIS ARISES BECAUSE BOTH GARDISAL AND CERVARIX ONLY PROTECT AGAINST TYPES 16 & 18 THAT ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR 70% OF ALL CERVICAL CANCER CASES...the other 12 high risk types still account for 30% and hence the need for HPV/Pap testing.
Understanding above what was on Nova this morning was completely inaccurate and misleading. A simple population demographic distribution curve will tell you that it is going to take 30 to 40 years to wipe out cervical cancer caused by Types 16 & 18 and we will still be left with 30% untreatable until vaccines or therapeutics are availavle for the other 12 high risk types.
Read the quote from Ian Frazer (inventor of Gardisal) on page 14 of GBI prospectus!
Cervical Cancer is firmly with us for the next 30 to 40 years (however declining overtime) and demand for HPV testing can only increase significantly from current levels.
In the next 20 years regular and widely available Pap and HPV testing will save more women's lives (currently aged 30-50) than Gardisal and Cervarix combined
cheers
GBI Price at posting:
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