Thanks lame. It would be interesting to know what AWE were expecting for the HCS based on their Seismic. It's hard to follow exact specifics for each well as AWE often didn't share all the information.
Once you dig a little you find snippets like this, 'Waitsia-2 has delivered another excellent flow test result from the Waitsia field. Net Pay at Waitsia-2 is 30% of Waitsia-3, so to achieve a maximum flow rate of 38.7 MMscf/d is a fantastic result'.
So in other words net pay at W-2 is around 7m (porosity undisclosed) and it still flowed 38.7 MMscf/d.
Their best wells(W-3, W-4) had 20m net pay in the Kingia and produced some pretty special numbers.
This bodes pretty 'well' for us with 41m net pay in the Kingia alone. Throw in some Wagina at 10m net pay and you start to see if the pay zones stay around this thickness across the field we potentially have a monster on our hands without even taking the HCS into account.
Yes there is a little water to flow under the bridge with testing etc but based on our current SP and your valuations it would seem no value has been given to the HCS at the moment. Sure the SP will drop back with a miss from the HCS but it should get back to where it is now and beyond with positive flow testing alone. I have both long term share parcels (bought several years ago) and short term parcels (bought with each discovery announcement) so I've been just contemplating when to take a little off the table or if at all and ride it out.
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