General Discussion of AGY, page-1367

I’m not twisting anything - the fact is there has not been any new brine producers in years and years because it is not “mining” as most know it. It is specialty chemical processing, and the expertise is sparse to be generous.
POSCO didn’t pay 280m based on what is happening with prices and supply/demand in the short term. They are thinking about the next decade and the decade after that. They did their sums and backed their call.
...which is where your point about ORE’s tech grade margins becomes rather poorly thought through imo. Where is the demand growth coming from? What is going to demand another 1Mtpa of LCE over the next decade? NOT grease or glass, that’s for sure! High quality, BG Li is what is going to be required. The real demand story is only just starting to unfold. Give it a few more years and we’ll see what that S-curve of demand does for pricing, and then we’ll see what the benefit of being able to produce bespoke BG product is all about.
What’s happening this year (or even next) is not really that important to us, it’s about what is unfolding over the next 3 and 5 years that impacts us. Our production, starting with 2ktpa by the sound of it, will be starting around the time of ev growth really starting to take shape. Price parity and all that. JZ has always aligned us with that timing. That is the plan. The price of Li today means jack. We have a forward-looking plan, which unfortunately for the traders out there, is linked to a bigger picture over a longer one frame - not some short-term money grab like some others.
POSCO are looking long term, so were Toyota when the paid what, $7.50?
They too were surprised by the market makers’ games etc, but they are in for the long haul, and hindsight is 20-20.

18 months ago we hit 48c iirc. What is stopping a spike like that again, at some point in the next year or two...? All it takes is a sentiment change and some punters getting a bit ahead of themselves with $$ in their eyes. History shows it is indeed possible.
By your logic, that should not have been possible 18months ago - heck, we hadn’t even proven BG then! What happened?! The markets are often illogical, as you are well aware.

And re the investment in hard rock by the Chinese and others.... there may be a lot more to this than meets the eye. “Control” comes to mind, and makes a lot of sense if you want to stop the upstarts from securing market share in a sector that is going to ramp up an up over the next decade. There are many well reasoned arguments about pricing pressure too, and it being a means of killing the competition, as we are seeing unfold at the moment with A40 and soon others to follow. It’s a messy game, and there is big $$ at stake.

I see the talk about the Chileans expanding again... we know how that went last time. All talk, no action. Water issues. False alarm. Chicken little? Perhaps a plan to scare off new entrants? No doubt there are funny games going on out there....

Meanwhile, we just continue to tick along and grow our capability, as we work through our plan, relatively immune to the current garbage. I think the cathode manufacturers can see what is coming and will soon start there real moves to secure longer-term supply - which may even involve JVs with producers like us to ensure a supplier. Time will tell... 96 gigafactories coming on line over the next decade aren’t going to run on unicorn tears.

10,000tpa+ is still the plan.