This is a play to capitalise on rising rock phosphate prices, plain and simple. Its also a play to leverage into the development of the Georgina Basin as a major phosphate producing region to Asia in the coming decades.
3mmt of extra DAP capacity will be needed to begin to account for the compounded growth that will have occurred in the time the Saudis and other projects have taken to build these capital and infrastructure intensive projects. And if it is going to take until mid 2010 to dig a hole containing rock phosphate trust me it will take much longer to build an expensive and complicated DAP plant.
People are underestimating growth in demand for fertilizers which is easily double digit at the moment and for that reason many are missing the likelihood of this as a sustained bull market for many years to come.
Its a bull market and people won't stop eating ever ...
note on rp prices q3 2008 fob morocco 450 500, page-44
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