DJIA 0.31% 26,683 dow jones industrials

fake or real rally

  1. 433 Posts.
    The Dow has climbed from around 10,900 to 11,700 in the last few trading days.

    So the big question is, is this a "correction" in a bear market or a strict rebound?

    I say its a fake rally and the Dow will head back down to 10,000 although I must admit on days when its glowing green optimism does tend to get the better of us.

    A lot of the US banks still own sub-prime infected assets, inflation is going through the roof and the Fed will have to reverse course soon.

    Ofcourse Fannie and Freddie and the twenty biggest financial firms in the US are now being shielded by the government and regulators - but that doesn't fix the fundamental problem of the US economy - using too much debt.

    Americans are losing heaps of jobs and the fundmental problem of taking way too much debt and not being able to afford it can't just go away in a couple of months. The government bailout of foreclosures/banks could make this problem even worse down the future.

    And why the hell is oil falling? Inventories just dived and hurricanes are heading into the Gulf of Mexico - (but ofcourse why did oil even double within a year, that was always a bubble).

    A true market bottom would be many weeks of consolidaiton, this is a fake "V" rally, I wouldn't get too excited, but I'm still long-term accumulating.
 
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