In my view, prices should increase in the short-mid term. Margins at steel mills are improving of late as iron ore prices fall and steel prices remain steady, meaning that mills may be more willing than previously to increase their bidding price. The alternative is to let VN and FeV producers close. Steel mills are now required by law to meet certain standards and, while FeNb is an alternative alloy, CBMM and other niobium producers are already currently at capacity servicing the European and US markets. Therefore, if V2O5 producers recognise this, which I’m sure they have, they have very little incentive to drop prices. They shall lose some income in the short term as some FeV and VN producers stop purchasing their material, but when Chinese steel mills return, as they must, VN and FeV producers shall be required back online and V2O5 consumption shall return. This is unless Chinese steel production falls significantly.
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