" I like to formulate solutions based on all possible variables, thus leading to the optimum decision according to all variable inputs". Problem is you will never have all that information ..no one does. Having a gold position is a good hedging strategy. Producers better than explorers IMHO.
Do not think either of your scenarios will pan out. To me you are repeating what you have read on internet. You add that to your belief system and react accordingly. Why do economist's mostly get it wrong. They do because Economists have the ear of CEO's and other assorted decision makers..Govt etc. So these decision makers receiving the bad news from Economists change the decisions they make, to avoid what the economists say will happen. Bit like Physics the outcome of experiments are changed by virtue of the observer...observing.
One of the best Investors I know is a former civil engineer.
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