Thanks, great summary. First gas for Range at 2022 is totally expected due the need to run the pilot for 6 months before coming up with a final development plan. In fact, if they can meet that date it will be a decent effort. Land access for CSG takes a long time, because there are multiple different landowners for any development package and the timing of access is determined by the slowest. Country lawyers have become very adept at stalling to extract maximum legal fees (reimbursed by the companies in the final access agreement). Cultural heritage and environmental surveys also need to be done. Then even after the wells are online it will be a few months of dewatering before any significant gas rates.
25 TJ/d to CTP - I assume this means a 50 TJ/d plant? That's what I said I thought it would be a few weeks ago after the 2C announcement.
Re: value you have to keep in mind that both Ironbark and Atlas are better quality blocks (especially Atlas), and even then we need a 2P figure for Range before we can directly compare, not a 2C. Ironbark also has added value to APLNG because it abuts their Condabri field so doesn't need any major infrastructure, as evidenced in the sale price - almost $2/GJ which is extremely high for CSG. But even if we take half the value per GJ (which is probably more accurate) the unrisked value of Range would go close to justifying CTP's current market cap, which means you get the rest of the portfolio almost for free (net of debt).
Capex is hard to estimate at this point as it will depend on whether they build infrastructure for gas and water or go for a tolling agreement with a nearby major, and whether they need a pipeline and if so, where to. Both the pipelines that run through or next to Range go to Gladstone, not the domestic market, so if they were to try and tap into those (which are probably at full capacity and the majors not particularly motivated to discuss access) they'd also have to organise some sort of gas swap to divert gas to the domestic market. The nearest domestic pipelines appear to be the Peat lateral (~7km east of Range) and the Berwyndale-Wallumbilla pipeline (~30km south). I didn't think the Peat lateral would be an option as Peat is only a small field but I looked it up and apparently the capacity is 74 TJ/d. If APLNG expands Peat they will probably connect it to the main APLNG pipeline (as GLNG did with Scotia) so the Peat lateral may be an option. But I'm thankful I'm not the one trying to come up with a solution to all that.
Atlas is a 40 TJ/d plant plus 60km pipeline and 60 wells. Senex didn't give a breakdown between Atlas and Roma North that I'm aware of but we can estimate it roughly from the FID announcement on 29/10/18.
Total capex $220-250M plus $140M to Jemena for the 40 TJ/d plant and 60km pipeline. Use the upper end as these things always run over budget, that's $390M total. $154M for 110 development wells (60 Atlas, 50 Roma) at $1.4M per well (drilling, completion and connection), plus 5 E&A wells and water monitoring bores, say $10M there. $140M for Jemena's share leaves about $85M left, which has to cover: Atlas water treatment plant, Roma 16 TJ/d plant, Roma water treatment plant, plus miscellaneous costs (access and approvals, connection to GLNG pipeline, overheads).
Splitting this out purely for Atlas, I'd estimate:
$85M for 60 development wells
$80M for the 40 TJ/d plant
$60M for the pipeline
$20M for the water plant (~1.5 ML/d or 10,000 bwd)
Plus overheads, access costs, etc. That's probably a ballpark figure for Range with the caveat of the uncertainty around the pipeline I mentioned.
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