DW
I have never taken any personal affront to your posts. I hope you can respect my contribution to the debate.
I joined the discussion because I own a position in the stock and there are useful nuggets of information and opinions shared on these threads and I was happy to share some of my insights.
I want to be clear to everyone. I am NOT offering advice. I am not licensed, registered or qualified to offer investment advice to Australian retail investors and absolutely nothing in my posts should be considered as investment advice in any way shape, or form. None of the content of my posts should not be construed as a solicitation of an offer to purchase or an offer to sell any securities or other financial instruments. I am not compensated for my posts. To avoid any confusion, I am regretfully going to change the sentiment indicator by my signature to "Neutral". THis does not mean that I am in any way changing my personal opinion on LiveTiles stock. It is merely to avoid any suggestion that my sentiment can be considered as "advice". It merely means that I am no longer sharing my personal sentiment with you all because I do not want anyone misconstruing it as advice.
I hope that makes DW happier.
I clearly disclose that we hold a position in the stock. That should indicate to everyone a bias in favor of the stock.
As an owner, I am likely to push back on negative misinformation.
As regards the "call". I have not made a "call". This is commentary and NOT a recommendation. However, my first post was on March 3rd when the share price was 36 cents. I wrote:
Hello.....I have only just discovered this thread. I would be happy to provide some detailed insights on LVT. It is a very interesting company. There are four key components to understanding the investment thesis on LiveTiles:
1. The Product Range: What does their software do? What problems does it solve for their customers? What is the Total Addressable Market?
2. Management: Who are they? Does the company have a competitive advantage in its space?
3. Cash burn. All early stage SAAS (software as a service) companies burn cash in the first stage of growth. They are creating annuity value by obtaining long term sticky recurring revenues and burning cash through cost of acquisition. Typically there are two important inflection points in a SAAS company's (i) The inflection point of cash burn. Cash burn increases as the company grows rapidly until the recurring revenues catch up and cash burn inflects and starts to decrease each quarter. The trough of cash burn is an important turning point in stock performance because investors can see a path to (ii) The inflection point of cash burn turning positive, when the company no longer needs regular funding. In a SAAS model, once the cash turns positive, it accumulates very quickly and funds future growth. When will LVT reach the first inflection point where cash burn starts to decrease? When will they turn cash positive?
4. Valuation! How much is the company worth?
As I reread that post, there is very little that I would change 6 months later. The stock is up 9.7% , Our position is hardly a failure by my measure but it is also not a success and 6 months is too short a time period to judge anything.
I read your posts that "management had said no more raises" but I have found no supporting published statements to support that and , frankly, the numbers do not support that. Many sensible contributors have argued there will be a further cash raise and I have not found a management statement to contradict that calculation. (Eg.Citibank's report argued they will need a cash raise) It is possible some posters seem to want to create a hope of no further cash raise so that they can argue there will be a cash raise. Surely the real question is how much cash is needed before they get to cash flow breakeven? (See my first post )
I read your comment that LVT's revenues are not subscription SAAS revenues.. I followed up. I believe that almost all of LVT's revenues are SAAS subscription revenues . That is not intended as a positive or negative comment, merely factual.
I read your comment that MSFT Teams was a competitor to LiveTiles Design. I gave my opinion that it was not and have supported that by providing the links to the four main competitors of LiveTiles Design.
I read the suggestions, largely led by Kingz, that wages are abnormally high at LVT. I have pointed out that total wages are in the financial statements ($15 million +/-) and the number of employees is in the recent company statement (180)... Anyone can divide $15m by 180 and convert to US dollars and compare that to average salaries in software.....and come to their own conclusion.
I enjoy the push and shove of debating stocks with fellow investors,,,,,,,,but if my contributions are going to be interpreted as either advice or boosting the stock then I must withdraw.
Of course, I would like to see the company succeed........and the stock succeed.....because we own the stock. But that does not mean that honest opinions cannot differ and we should respect those differences not insult them.
You write "I think there will be a time to get involved "
At least we agree on that. Since you dont own the stock you would like to be involved at a lower level........a perfectly natural sentiment.
Since I own the stock, I would like for you to have to pay a fair price to join me on the shareholder register.......a perfectly natural sentiment.
There is a natural tension there. But we should try and be factual in our debate.
In closing, when and if, there is a capital raise.......my paltry understanding of Australian security laws is that the company can restrict the retail offering of the capital raise to "existing shareholders". I like that .
Best wishes to all. I really must spend my time elsewhere for the next week or so.
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