TNG trims capex further at Mount Peake, page-13

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reddeer

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17/09/19

05:16

Post #: 40444563
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Originally posted by abishai: ↑

Mr plough,did you happen to read the 'appendix A' from the announcement of the 11th September?
This makes a few salient points with regard to FID.Some are:

Regarding the process-- ' Whether or not additional test work will be required depends on the outcome of the FEED process, and ongoing and future negotiations with the providers of process guarantees and lenders to the Project.'

Regarding CAPEX--- 'It has been suggested that certain components of the TIVAN® Processing Plant could be leased or provided by specialist firms and charged back at a fee but operated by TNG. Studies to procure these agreements are ongoing and initial estimates have been included in the CAPEX and OPEX. '-- Also CAPEX---The interim capital cost is based on the maximised sourcing of largely pre-manufactured modules from qualified vendors from manufacturing hubs with attractive labour costs. TNG considers it prudent to point out that the present CAPEX assumptions may change if lenders (e.g. under an ECA-backed lending scheme) require a larger than presently assumed portion of the capital equipment to be sourced from fixed countries of origin.'

I think we can see the probability of material increases in CAPEX becoming a reality unless the company gets VERY lucky with ALL their present assumptions.On the other side,there are currently no financial terms agreed and I am not convinced an NPV8 is the correct discount to apply and either is PB and he stated as much publicly.So what's the NPV10 and NPV12 look like?
After ALL the numbers are finalised, after the senior debt providers have decided on the full suite of guarantees they require,after SMS have decided what price to put on those guarantees,after cost of senior and subordinate debt is known, (and a bunch of other variables)then the board will decide whether it's commercially justifiable. FID

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Abishai,
I am not entirely comfortable with the NPV8 either. Also I think there will be quite a large overseas component in the capex. Hopefully kfw bank interest will be low reflecting SMS involvement. Overall I am pleased that the tortoise can almost see the finish line.

TNG Price at posting: 9.2¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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