I noticed no chart thread, so will post here. I have marked announcements on the chart. This is a daily from August 2018 to yesterday.
I've been in this company for a couple of years, and had consigned shares to the bottom drawer. However, I am prepared to dust them off now. I have seen many other companies come out with the next great product and share price climb to ridiculous levels, only for there to be a long slow malaise over 2 or 3 years as reality sets in. Its the classic playbook. However this weeks announcement
may be the trigger we have been waiting for.
From my review of other machines available, A3d's appears to outperform all. Speed is the KEY element that will get industrial clients to come on board. It has to be cost competitive. Until now it has not been for the majority.
The JV with Worley, Additivenow, is slowly expanding sales based on a review of the FY accounts. I interpret that as more orders being received for powders or small printers, but regardless of the make up, it shows a TAKE UP.
I found it interesting that they borrowed 80% of their expected R&D as opposed to CR. I don't believe they have done this before but someone will correct me if I am wrong. Secondly, it reads to me that management determined that that amount might be enough to get them to the point of the first machine sale. It could also mean that they were worried they couldn't raise from investors, so open to opinion.
However, by re reading all the announcements over the period above, I still notice that they are talking about their JV partners and those with Non binding MOU's, so those parties haven't walked. They also still talk about the list of interested parties.
I believe there could be a sale around the corner. I'd suspect it will either be to Granges or to Worleys, as those are the two partners that would have the funds to purchase and who have been working with A3D for long enough to see whether the product has potential. It might even be to Additivenow so they could offer a "PaaS" - "printing as a service", which would likely see a higher take up by customers before anyone spent large $'s on a printer. Even in Worley funded the JV to buy the printer and then A3d got half the proceeds, that would tide them over for another couple of quarters perhaps. I also think the R&D spend is likely to decrease from here.
The shares on issue are so few and the register fairly tight, that it seems to me in reality that the share price has lagged because of retail holders just getting fed up and taking out any funds they can, and moving on. It hasn't taken much volume to sink the SP over time. The diehards are still in there, and they definitely would not be selling now, IMV.
So to sum up, this is back on the current watchlist, and Im looking for another entry.
GLTAH.
One announcement could kick start a repeat of the exuberance of late 2016.
