I appreciate your research... but I have a quibble.
"Take the growth in ARR and divide by number of new customers:"
I think this is going to give you a false number. The company's own reporting is giving average ARR = ~$45,000... very hard to reconcile that with the number you offer for new customers spending $140,000. I would think that new customers, on average, initially spend less than existing customers [who might have expanded their spend].
The growth profile is certainly strong but it is still based on only 3 years. To my mind the statistic to analyse is the growth rate of the ARR per customer and to match that against the growth rate of customer acquisition to come up with a projection for ARR by 2021.
Currently customer acquisition growth is running around 70% and the growth of ARR is running around 56% [company's number]. Of those 2 numbers [given the CR injection of $50M] I would expect to see the acquisition growth rate to hold somewhere around its current levels... but the growth in ARR is more difficult to guess [and since the company is forecasting a target of $100M ARR by 2021 I think that indicates they are seeing that trend starting to level out]. If customer acquisition can hold 70% growth the number I get is 2,655 customers by 2021 [which at the current ARR of ~$45,000 results in a ~$115M ARR by 2021]
LVT Price at posting:
37.0¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
