world markets about to collapse, page-15

Hi Scanbox,

With respect, I disagree.

The US Employment Survey does not measure:
1)
sole proprietors;
2)
self-employed contractors;
3)
self-employed professionals (ie: share raders, property developers, free lancers and so called "eBay brokers").

Both of these segments are increasing in the USA (not decreasing).

Jobs are still being created, whether or not its 21,000, 121,000 or 221,000 per month.

In February 2004:
1)
total employment was 138.3M (138.5M in December);
2)
the civilian workforce was 146.5M (146.9M in December);
3)
total unemployment was 8.2M (8.4M in December);
4)
62.2% of the 16+ aged population had jobs;
5)
75.9M people aged 16+ did not hold jobs and were not counted as part of the workforce (75.6M in December);
6)
the labour force participation rate was 65.9%;
7)
7.2M people held more than one job (concurrently).

Within the individual employment segments:

1) CONSTRUCTION:
Fell 24,000 in February.
Surged in January.
Up 123,000 since March 2003.

2) MANUFACTURING:
Unchanged in February.
Slowing rate of attrition.
Job losses since August 2003 averaged 16,000 per month.
Job losses in 2003 (to August) averaged 62,000 per month.
Durable goods manufacturing gained in February.
Nondurable goods manufacturing fell.

3) FINANCIAL SERVICES:
Enhanced financials (ie: securities, commodity contracts, and investments) gained 4,000 in February. Securities industry broadly up 18,000 since August 2003.
Credit intermediation (including mortgage banking) fell 22,000 since Augzust 2003.

4) RETAIL:
Little changed in February.
No net change since October 2003.

5) PROFESSIONAL & BUSINESS SERVICES:
Temporary help services up 32,000 in February.
Since April 2003, temporary help services has added 215,000 jobs.

6) PRIVATE EDUCATION & HEALTH SERVICES:
Little changed in February.
Up 291,000 since February 2003.
Within health care and social assistance:
*
hospitals lost 5,000 in February;
social assistance employment gained 10,000 (ie: child care).

7) GOVERNMENT:
State Government added 20,000 jobs in February, largely in state education.

With average earnings and average hourly rates increasing, and with the average work week increasing, recovery both in the economy and in the employment sector will contine.

Expect consistent numbers deonstrating this to start showing up in April (when the 100K mark will be breached) and May /June (when the 150K mark will be breached).

No collapse inthe markets is likely.However, given Buffet's comments, some volatility may well still result.

I am positioned in the US, in Europe and locally.