Prophet, Quote: “Mar 08 quarter $4.4m is higher than June 06 at $3.4m. Dec 07 at $12m is higher than Dec 06 at $6.3m. As your figures show Dec 07 is the second highest roylaty number. Only six months ago”.
Who is looking at royalties figures in isolation? You are oblivious that the quarterly figures starting from Jun 06 to June 08 tell a story – the pandemic stocking market bonanza is gone. This is consistent not only of Relenza but reflected by the fall in Tamiflu. To attribute Tamiflu drop by more than 90% in sales from the peak is due to the negative issues (immunity from flu virus, negative effects on young patients, ecetera) is a joke. Who can forget Peter Cook’s statement that Relenza sales will not suffer the same drop as Tamiflu, only to have GSK reporting a 60% quarterly drop in Relenza sales less than 24 hours later!
A $6.2M quarterly sales compared to a peak of $220M sales do not indicate how much the pandemic stock pile market has shrunk? It is the biggest joke for Peter Cook to blame drop in pandemic stockpile sales as “seasonal variations” when everyone know Relenza has close to ZERO share of the seasonal flu market.
QUOTE: Yes, the GSK “long standing relationship” was to tell potential clients Relenza was ineffective and in fact out right dangerous. (Read GSK’s reply to BTA’s claims for full details)."
Your opinion here would appear contrary to learned scientific advise and research that Relenza is appearing a superior product to its direct market competitor. Re 'outright dangerous' - this is what the Japanese are suggesting about the competitors product is it not.
Don’t twist my words – my opinion? Are you stating GSK did not present in publicly available document that Relenza was ineffective or out right dangerous? You obviously could not understand or did not read the GSK documents in response to BTA’s case.
QUOTE: “If you were seeking $300 - $400 million in damages and the defending party came to you offering $100m would you not think you had them on the back foot? Especially if you trusted your legal advice that you had a strong case. Hindsight is a wonderful thing. And the royalties since 2006 whilst steady (not including the last quarter 2008) confirm a strong (or the appearance of) case remained beyond 2006”.
To down a $100M offer and then settled for $20M after spending $35M to $40M speaks for itself. The pandemic stock sale figures clearly show 2006 was the BEST EVER year to settle. In comparison, Gillead certainly had shown the way by settling and continuing to capture the lion share of the pandemic market!
BTA Price at posting:
0.0¢ Sentiment: Sell Disclosure: Not Held
