Bring the hammer down - 'climate change deniers are dangerous' and being banished from The Conversation, page-1706

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    Your calculation is wrong. The increase in developing world emissions is from 10 to 25, as described in your original question (which was poorly and ambiguously worded).
    "
    just one-quarter
    (from the current one-tenth) of current western world
    per capita
    carbon emissions.
    "

    One quarter of 100 is 25. So the actual increase is about 76.4%.

    (Apologies, I hadn't yet seen this post of yours when I replied to your earlier one on this.)

    Yes, you could interpret it that way and come up with a figure of 76%, which would be represented by the table as follows:

    carbon emissions2.JPG

    Or, one could say that the population forecasts are too high, and that the total global population will only be at 10 billion by 2050, and not 11 billion. in which case the increase in total global emissions will be more like 60%:

    carbon emissions3.JPG

    Then again, one could adopt an even more conservative stance on the level of per capita carbon emissions in the underdeveloped and developed world and say that it might only reach one-fifth, instead of one-quarter, of current developed world per capita levels, in which case the increase in total global emissions would be "only" 35%:

    carbon emissions4.JPG

    As I stated in my initial post relating to this exercise, its value lies in it being indicative, rather than prescriptive.

    I mean, one can cut and slice it in many different ways, but you still come to the same answer:

    Namely, that it is a numbers game and almost irrespective of what we in the developed world do, or how much we protest and glue ourselves to various pieces of infrastructure, it will not prevent global carbon emissions continuing to rise meaningfully due to the sheer weight of numbers of what is happening in the parts of the world whose billions of inhabitants are over the coming decades going to be urbanising, modernising, industrialising and consuming (like we in the West have been doing for the preceding decades).

    Heck, based on the arithmetic, carbon emissions in the developed world can go to zero (!) and it is not going to prevent total global emissions from continuing to increase for decades to come.

    carbon emissions5.JPG


    What is needed to address the problem - if the problem is indeed the emergency that some claim it to be is a different approach.

    .
 
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