Ann: Premium Grade Water Soluble Sulphate of Potash Produced, page-9

Sevo,
You are a prolific commentator & are clearly knowledgeable about this sector, so I enjoy reading your insights. One question I'd like to raise with you is this question of MOP conversion, which both SO4 and APC are claiming as an opportunity. With my limited understanding, here's my view:

• MOP landed at Geraldton for ~US$300/t = ~A$440/t at current exchange rate
• Truck ~1,000km to Lake Wells (or Lake Way in the case of SO4, perhaps a similar distance?): say A$100/t (I thnk that is in line with AMN's logistics cost) - 10 cents/tonne kilometre (unlike the 3.4 cents APC seem to have used in its DFS)
• Cost of conversion? No idea, but lets say A$50/t
• Truck back to Geraldton, another A$100/t + shiploading, say another ~A$20/t
• So, FOB cost of this component of their SOP product is ~A$710/t, or US$475/t
• KLL's recent presentations included a cost curve & US$475/t would be quite close to the highest cost producer, with little operating margin at current European prices (once agin, from KLL) of ~US$500.

If this analysis is correct then I guess the trick is one just has to believe in one's price forecast to see it as a value adding opportunity?

What am I missing with this?