I think the market is suffering from irrational pessermism.Out of every 10 stocks reporting in the U.S. 6 are above estimates 2 are in line 2 are below.We are creating are own self profecy,the more negative we become, the more the market goes down, the more probable we will get a recession.The U.S economy was growing till June.All the indicators were rising.We by listening to all the R Russels and S B`s are causing the meltdown, we don`t have confidence in our own ability to make rational deciscions.Dow stocks are now on a P.E of 15 not 45 as someone stated earlier.Microsoft is, as of last night trading on a P E of 21. How can someone Draw a line on a chart for 30 or 40 years and say this is where the Dow should be.He said the Tech revolution didn`t happen.How many computers did you own in 1970?How much did a house cost in 1970 ?If the Dow was a House in 1970 itwould been 30,000 dollars. In 2002 it would have been 800,000 dollars. ( my house) What % is that? So the Dow in 1970 was 760 and now it`s7800, what % is that.The world population has doubled this century.Now it will double again by 2029! Where is the expotential growth on the chart.How many of us went to a fast food outlet in 1970 or owned a computer? My family came from europe we would ring our families once a year, now for bussiness I ring europe or asia neally daily.Where is technologies growth taken into account on the charts.We live in an age where the media control everything.They sensationalize the smallest thing.On cnbc yesterday, the comentator was trying to sensationalize the axj by saying we had fallen by an enormous 30 points.The share market like the gold market are not run on fundermentals any longer,there is a lot more money to be made taking long or short positions.We were in a good economic position till the end of May , now even I`m not sure.Why all of a sudden did the U S dollar start to lose agains`t the euro.Was it there growing unemployment levels, was it there stock market that has been falling quicker than the U S`s. or was it some smart boy`s who took out positions even before the move.I`m not saying where the markets going at this stage, maybe to 4000 on the Dow 500 nasdaq.3 months ago we had falling unemployment,rising productivity,good consumer sentiment,now?Microsoft has 53 billion u s dollars in the bank enough to buy 2 nab`s and there share price should come back to 20 dollars.There are sectors in the world that have suffered from there own excesses, like the telecom`s of europe.They got where they are by paying billions for there 3 g liscences.The chip sector through just being to many competitors.That has all been cleaned up now, our dvt, vna, bks all the excesses are gone,I wish someone could draw a chart with population growth,wealth factor,tech factor,all drawn in since 1970 till now expotentialy.!I don`t know if i made my point clear about Microsoft, how much in montery terms in 1970 were all the dow companies worth? maybe just 1 Dow company has enough cash to buy them all at 1970`s value.When you look at any chart that is not drawn expotentialy,you get a result which is not correct.To give you an example look at a chart of the world`s population,like I said 100 years to double then 30years to double again then 12years to double again!Like I said I believe we are all suffering from irrational pessermism.Wall street has learned that you now with the help of media can create any situation they want.Do exactly as Bomber say`s go with the trend.Rationality has nothing to do with the stock market any more.Fear and greed created by the media. I do not hold any gold stocks or any large amount of shares atm.
