The key sensitivities for Kazia will be funding risk and the success of its lead drugs in clinical trials. A key question will be whether GDC-0084 works sufficiently well as a single agent in GBM to justify filing for approval after a single pivotal study, or whether a confirmatory Phase III trial (possibly in combination with radiotherapy or temozolomide) will be required for approval.
Our base case scenario models a potential approval in 2024 after a single pivotal study. If a confirmatory trial is required, approval could be delayed to 2026 or later. While Kazia has fully funded the ongoing Phase IIa study of GDC-0084 in GBM, it would require additional funds of ~A$15–20m for a Phase IIb trial, which could result in significant dilution of existing shareholders.
IMO
Beware of misleading information and valuations from a few HC members - Read Report in Full
Beware of those telling you to ignore funding requirements etc... Read report in full
Read report in full
Valuation of $2 a share is based upon post phase 111 approval of GDC0084 and Cantrixil partner and more etc
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