There are three possible scenario's. Magellan could keep buying more share, start selling shares, do nothing.
Going to assume they'll keep buying.
There is a potential short squeeze opportunity here. Rationale.
Top 20 shareholding concentration increases from 82% to 88% to 90%.
13.6M shares shorted for 7.23%. This is at an all time high.
Days to cover = 9.6 days (1.4M traded per day, includes shorts trading)
Days to cover = 17 days (800k traded per day, excludes shorts trading) Prefer this number!
It appears from the data the shorts having been selling in Magellan
Iron ore prices have remained robust so far this FY. EBITDA excluding lithium still looks very good.
Mining Service division has 100% contract retention and looking to grow +15% this year.
Iron Ore mine expansion well underway. Est 15M tonnes in FY20.
Issue in play - Minor delays occurred at Wodgina plant construction.
Issue in play - Lithium prices.
Risk - Albemarle sale doesn't proceed (probability - very low)
Risk - Iron ore prices drop 20-25% (probability - low) Reference point are sector pricing forecasts
Anyway suggest everyone do their own research. Changed my sentiment to a Buy today.
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Last
$50.94 |
Change
-0.240(0.47%) |
Mkt cap ! $10.01B |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
$51.18 | $52.21 | $50.94 | $50.13M | 973.8K |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
2 | 433 | $50.92 |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
$51.26 | 900 | 1 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 300 | 50.880 |
2 | 1300 | 50.500 |
1 | 100 | 50.380 |
1 | 500 | 50.300 |
4 | 106 | 50.000 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
51.260 | 900 | 1 |
51.520 | 900 | 1 |
51.550 | 900 | 1 |
51.650 | 900 | 1 |
51.750 | 1900 | 2 |
Last trade - 16.10pm 11/10/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
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