downtrend smashed, page-22

BL

IMO the market has factored in cap rate increases.

IMO key drivers are:
- slowdown in sales growth (affects rents with a lag and more importantly occupancy on completed developments)
- development spend (sustained slowdown hits capex hard)
- interest rates (again with a lag, they are heavily hedged)
- FX (AUD strength negative)

For the stock to fall there has to be a view that EPS will slow significantly.

You are correct regional malls quite discretionary; they also have higher barriers to entry.

Off the top of my head the assets are 45% US, 45% Australia, 5% NZ, 5% UK. The latter are both in trouble, but still small % overall. In the US they are overweight California.