Leading indicators of an economic contraction, page-584

Update on these traffic lights:

- the US yield curve needs to remain negative for 4-6 months (it did so for approx 4.5 months. Has returned to positive in last week or so. AMBER*)
- the gdp weighted global yield curve needs to turn negative (it did so for a few months and is starting to rise again as central banks lower their rates. AMBER*)
- US LEI index needs to be high but declining over several months (GREEN)
- signs of euphoria must be present (GREEN)
- US unemployment rate low, trough formed and starting to rise. (GREEN)

2 amber 3 green. No traffic jam yet, still flowing ok. Sleep easy

* if these two continue to rise for several months they will switch to red.