Doing some calcs on qtryly price drops and extrapolating them into the future is simply extending the chart. Drawing the downtrend further down, simply because it has been going down, suggesting that it is “likely” to continue..?
The shorters don’t know shite. They have been throwing money at this and other stocks to force the price down. They have effectively pre-bought 65 million shares. Or 40-odd million, we don’t know for sure because the reporting process and requirement are a bit dodgy to say the least.
The more shorts sold, the more the spring is coiled. The more shorts sold, the less available for further shorting. One could therefore argue that the more shorts, the closer we are to the turnaround, because the increase in shorts is not sustainable.
The funniest thing I’ve heard, from at least two different posters, is that the shorters know more than the longs, and they have access to more information and therefore make “better” calls. They are more “pro”. What a load of garbage!
Give me 50 million shorts or $50m and I’ll tell you where the share price will be next week. Simple.
People can try to guess the price action tomorrow or next week but it is pure guesswork due to the power of the market makers. One approach is to try to ride the coattails of the market maker/s and skim pips off their moves. The other end of the spectrum is to assess the fundamentals of the business and the sector, and invest accordingly, knowing there’ll be all sorts of unpredictable BS along the way.
I don’t tell anyone to buy or sell, and when I’ve seen prices dropping to unreasonable levels yes I’ve guessed that that should surely be the bottom! I’ve pulled the trigger along the way down, buying at the time with the information and hand, being fully comfortable that I’m purchasing at a good price. Can I ever be certain that it’s the bottom? No-one can.
Fundamentally, the share price should have stopped its slide long ago, imo, so it makes no sense to suggest it should still slide further. Might it? Sure. Should it? Hardly.
If it does, which it might, why should it stop at 85, 80, 73...? Is that where fundamentals come back into sight, and people realise how stupidly low it is and simply cannot resist buying...?
Simply “extending the chart” makes no sense. It actually makes as much sense as extending the chart back at $4.50 and suggesting $8 within months.
My positivity for the future is based on fundamentals. I continue to buy when I can, as imo prices are cheap. Should I be pissed about buying “too early” over the past year? Hardly. At the time, the price was good and guessing it would get even cheaper, although it actually did, would have been just a guess.
I certainly wasn’t the only one buying. I’ve already showed that even “the pros” at Blackrock were buying - even at above $4.
I know you’re looking for a cheaper entry, so of course you’d like to see it drop more, and of course you’ll point to “continuation of the downtrend”.
Show me some “holistic valuation” that you speak of that indicates continuation of the downtrend is logical... I’ve heard nothing from anyone here that reasonably shows we are overpriced. Such “analysis” assumes no expansion, no increase in Li prices, no development of our other assets.... absolutely not reasonable imo!
And as for putting more weight on market sentiment.... that can change in an instant, as we have seen... all you need is a nice little “release” from the “experts”, such as some fearmongering about massive imminent Chilean brine expansions... how convenient! Market makers. Predict the future on continuation of market sentiment, which can turn on a dime, at your own peril imo!
I have no issue accumulating at these levels, and no issue with top ups at higher levels over the past year. Stick around and we’ll see them all green at some point.
Again, I call the landscape how I see it, assess the potential based on unfolding investment and fundamentals of the sector, and invest accordingly. As we have seen, the short-term “fundamentals” of the sector have been so opaque recently, and combined with the shorting and market maker action, leaves short-term “prediction” fruitless imo! If some want to wait for a “confirmed” turnaround to buy in, good for them!
I remember buying “early” back at 10 cents.... we dropped to under 5c. Big deal. Bought some more and didn’t beat myself up over it. I reckon I’ll be saying something similar in a few years - bought “early” at $3 and $2.... big deal. When we are producing decent quantities of Li (SC and chemicals) from multiple assets, any of these prices will be considered a bargain.
Not bothered now, and won’t be bothered then.
When I bought shares at around $2, I considered them cheap, and still do, regardless of whether they got cheaper or not afterwards.
The company has been setting itself up for long-term success, slowly but surely... anyone expecting things to happen overnight are kidding themselves. Mining operations take years to evaluate and develop. Everything points to massive demand for our product and ongoing struggle, in general, with companies trying to bring quality resources to production. Evaluation, approvals, development, pilot production, product testing, commissioning, ramp up, etc etc ... years and years and years.. people talking about supply being turned on like a tap are simply kidding themselves.
Based on the evidence and information in front of me, I have 50% confidence in a sp rise next week (eg flip a coin), but 99% confidence that ALL my parcels will be very very green in 4/5/6 years... that’s simply imo and time will tell.
DYOR!
GXY Price at posting:
91.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
