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Originally posted by INVESTA33:
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Gcar in response to your post reply yesterday Your demand - Great, post your prediction and reasoning and we’ll see how it unfolds!My response - Nothings changed since you last asked (except a further rapid decrease in the share price) - my valuation 73c market Cap $300MJust a small portion of my reasoning - current market/industry indicators remain in the range of below average to poor - more long term holders becoming doubtful and emotive possibly contributed to by lack of clear company issued future guidance and heading off to the sell button (exemplified by calls for: separate posting forums so that the financial realities of the stock ie: discussions about the stock price can be separated away from those who only wish to post hypothesis as to where the company may be headed, authorities to be involved as the share price could not have possibly reached this level without unfair or illegal interference, statements of being happy to see it fall as far as possible so that they can invest more and more in this great company etc etc) , the resilient level of short sales , an unbroken 2019 path of declineYour statement - No-one with any TA skills that I know of forecasts a continuation of a downtrend just because there is currently a downtrend.The problem with that “logic” is that you are guaranteed to be wrong at some point.... and when that point is, you can never know, and this “logic” presents zero statistical basis. How likely are you to be wrong now? You can’t know if you are right or wrong, but can only base it on long term statistics and be prepared to be wrong a bit less than right over the long term (hopefully!). History of this stock tells us we are overdue for a reversal. See the last 2 big ones...? Are the odds against you? Overdue reversal?My response - I'm sorry that you failed to read the first line of my post 'Hey there Wilson - whilst the stock market rarely behaves in a linear manner Your statement - All you’ve really said above is that we have been getting smashed for ages and if it continues, we’ll get even more smashed.Wow.My response - I'm sorry that this was the only information that you were able to extrapolate from the figures in my post yesterday. Given your well documented propensity to call the bottom at regular intervals along the decline path I am surprised. Perhaps adding a little more weight to things such as market sentiment might assist you to better hone your future valuations of company assets, share price predictions and top up/averaging share price purchases. A colleague of mine whom is a LPD investor and watcher of the GXY story quipped to me recently ' Gosh this poor fellow has identified more false bottoms than the luggage department at Columbia Airport ' The old adage 'The trend is your friend' not always correct but still very much in play here as of last Friday and highly exemplified for the October trading month thus far. Your statement - Charts are all about patterns and statistics, and imo, about self-fulfilling prophecies to create some level of predictability for/by traders that would otherwise be a random guessing game. ..and that would all be a bit chaotic for milking pips so it needs some type of structure... for example there is zero fundamental or logical basis that a gap from weeks/months ago “needs to be filled” but statistics can support that they “should”. That is fundamentally ridiculous...but part of the invented “rules” that exist...From what I can tell, trying to use charts or price history to predict the probability of a particular future movement will need to consider several supporting TA factors to be anything other than a pure guess.My response - Definitely couldn't comment on Charts - I simply don't have the expertise - Unashamedly my main tools are a writing pad, calculator and bic biro.Your statement - Anyway... the lower it goes, the more I’ll own, so no biggie in the short term. Just can’t see any logic behind further falls... and happy to admit that all logic has gone out the window long ago! So even me guessing it might go lower is just guessing that the market maker will push it there...Good luck traders, tough gig, that is for sure.My response - There are traders with contrarian viewpoints to your own who will say that in their view whats happening is very logical based upon their own methods of holistic valuation - no point in taking an evangelical view of a stock only to discover that the priest has stitched you up with the wrong prayer book - as an example every shorter would be at odds with your own sentiment and for how long can one continue to chant and chant and chant and chant the wrong Psalm before someone draws their attention to it? Perhaps in fairness to other posters you might consider bolstering some of your posts with a clear statement that you have based your guesses and predictions upon an intended hold time of 10 years or more
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INVESTA33
