Using some reported and some assumed numbers relating to milestone payments due or potentially coming due to PolyNovo Biomaterials over the next 24 to 36 months - and assuming that they continue to attract further deals of the approximate quality that they have already attracted - and assuming a current cash burn of around $3,000,000 per year, I think there is a good chance that PolyNovo Biomaterials could turn in some very interesting numbers.
Based on all this, I have worked out a late 2008 target of 20 cents a share, and mid 2009 target of 50 to 70 cents a share. Laugh if you want, but I think its solid.
Longer term, in my opinion, the share price can go much higher, but this will depend on the royalty flow, and until we know more about the global deals that have already been struck these can't be estimated well enough to permit sensible forecasting.
If royalties are typical, several years out the share price could be multiples of my 2009 target, assuming that the products PolyNovo's partners develop are well received by the medical establishment.
Bottom line right now is that this issue could quadruple or quintuple by years end.
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