Ann: Quarterly Production Report, page-15

that's not true.

A massive nuclear war wiping out either the pilbara or china would have a similar effect (probably if the US were wiped out too). But none of these (including your statement) are likely at all.

In fact they are statistically unlikely (so unlikely that they aren't worth worrying about).

China can't afford to stop getting our ore, as a huge part of their economy is steel (even larger if you extrapolate steel into construction etc) - so they will keep buying from Australia and Brazil. (it kind of reminds me of an argument on the radio this morning about the Vic Govt signing up to the BRI against the wishes of the Aust Govt. The irony being that our economy in Aust is more than somewhat propped up by IO, which is basically high because of the BRI).

The price of IO is the risk/benefit with FMG - up and shareholders are a winner, down and shorters win. It really is a simple stock.