Ann: CEO & Investor Small Cap Conference Presentation, page-2

I wrote about AHF as the half glass full company on 28 February 2019. So we are now 8 months down the track and I still rate them as the Little Engine that may not get there.

A few key points that come out of this presentation:

• There will be only 3 million (when cows are at full production) of organic milk until the remaining farms are certified in 2021. So my transformation plan only delivers 25% of production target for the next 15 months.
• The start date for Phase 2 is a hail mary statement. I guess you can put date on Phase 2 because it is subject to "Stage 2 plant subject to due diligence, equipment selection, planning approvals and funding". Plenty of get out of jail clauses there
• Phase 2 financials - $45 million of capex to generate $23.5 EBITDA. So a five year payback - I thought it would be shorter than that given the booming demand for formula and Stage 1 is 3.5 year payback
• To raise $45 million is going to be a challenge - There goto strategy will be SPP and other investors. Given all raisings over the past few years are under water, I can see a big dilution if this plan comes to fruition

Still watching, not investing.