At current prices its probably breaking even or close to it but a couple of key risks though over the next 3-6 months: 1) Lower zinc prices 2) Recovery reduction as they bring on additional volumes (as happened in the past) 3) Wet/Cyclone season resulting in production disruptions 4) Operational cost cutting - during periods with tight cashflow preventative maintenance usually gets cut. Creates additional risk 5) Delays/non-performance from customers - in oversupplied markets the buyers have significant negotiating power. If a smelter has operational issues, have purchased too much etc they can easily push back on NCZ to delay shipments. NCZ has little option but to accept and hold additional stock/lower cashflow. See the lithium market for examples of how this plays out.
Some of these issues can wipe out cashflow and given NCZ has not built up a cash buffer so far can see them back raising capital at short notice.
NCZ Price at posting:
37.5¢ Sentiment: Sell Disclosure: Not Held