If I were a Swiss banker contemplating any part of a billion dollar funding arrangement for Pensador, I would insist that the prominent Angolans at the helm were going to continue to be prominent. i.e. I would tell them that the money depends entirely on the outcome of the election.
Now I don't think there is much chance of the incumbents not being re-elected; it is as close to certain as it gets. However, as a prudent, careful banker, I'd want to see the election results before I hand over the money. I don't fancy waking up on September 7th and finding out that a guy who owes me 300 million dollars is working in his sister's flower shop now that uncle Eduardo's party is no longer in power.
So for the past several months various arrangements and contracts have been prepared and negotiated that can't really be signed off on until after the election.
Unlike the prudent gnomes in Zurich, CVI share holders, like me, have put their cash up front, before the election. And now we have to wait. We will probably have to sweat it out for about three more weeks until Dos Santos's MPLA is re-elected.
During the week beginning 7th September I would expect at least one major announcement that actually includes the word "signed" rather than "is being negotiated". Please note that this is an expectation on my part, and that I have no special knowledge or even a rumor to lend it any weight at all.
If you were negotiating a sponsorship deal with an Olympic athlete, you'd probably insist on them actually getting that gold medal before you signed the cheque. Same with prominent Angolans... no cheques until after you win the election!
Three more weeks won't kill me. Won't even make me angry.
CVI Price at posting:
0.0¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
