possible valuation, page-7

Just a quick question about one of your calculations - is the NTA not the NET value of the asset after debt is taken off?

"On a "look-through" basis, in which its share of the debt in the other Centro entities is included, it is exposed to $8.6 billion of debt and has look-through gearing of more than 75 per cent."

If there was a 15% drop in the value of the properties that would drop the value of the equity from ~25% of the portfolio to ~10% of the portfolio - a 60% drop in NTA.
A 25% drop in property values would wipe out all "tangible" value. Services business, solid income and intangibles seem to mean little when the banks are scared stupid.

This high gearing is what is amplifying the losses from the property revaluations.
Oce again, feel free to pull me up on this but if their assets keep being revalued lower, their debt gets more expensive and their tenants start packing up, which looks likely given the current economic climate, they'll be in a lot of trouble. They're obviously trying to "pull back" with the aggressive asset sales in an attempt to save the company. The questions will be can they do it fast enough, will it be enough? Will they get good prices?

I look forward to reading the annual report but expect there to be some pain. Hopefully most of the pain was experienced in the last round of write downs and their cashflow still looks good!

I'm in this one deep. Good luck guys.