I haven't had the chance to read the full AH report, but based on the figures provided by Deevo (thanks), I think the modelling is incredibly conservative, USD/AUD .95, not any time in the next twelve months, copper $2.50, too conservative (based on the principal China are running down their stockpiles to lower the copper price at the moment), and long term cylce to continue.
Like most on the CMR posts said last week, we crunched our own conservative numbers with a range of $1.50 to $2.35. If AH with a very conservative (I think overly) forward cost model suggest $1.40, then I think holder buy at current prices should be happy with a potential 56% discount to fair value.
Wait until commodities clear this correction and people start talking about $3.50 lt copper again. feelings will change. Also dont forget the AUD is going down while the USD goes up, leaving the relative AUD price for ore in pretty decent shape.
I'm sure any potential bid would be pitched around this value, if not with a slight bid premium.
Just thinking out load here, DYOR.
Cheers.
CMR Price at posting:
0.0¢ Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Held
