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fatboyj

188 Posts.

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05/11/19

20:25

Post #: 41263159
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Originally posted by asb83: ↑

I think I'm sounding like a broken record, but I keep re-iterating that $11 is what I see as fair value. I'm not quite sure why people are bothering to touch this at these levels. I'ts not downramping or whatever people like to call it. It's simply calling it as it is.

The company has told the market that the current FY is a year of investment for future growth. Anyone who has been in the market long enough knows that when a company says that, you keep a wide berth until they can prove that the investment is reaping rewards. It also gives management an excuse to justify a poor year, because it's all in the name of investing for the long term. The 2020 FY result is not going to be pretty, IMO. The first 4 months is going to underwhelm relative to consensus, IMO, which is why the share price is languishing. Consensus still has bullish forecasts for FY20, so that isn't going to help when they miss consensus by quite a margin, IMO.

The company has peaked in terms of its profit margins and growth. I don't think there's any doubt about that. It's going hard into fresh milk in USA, which is going to continue eating away at margins, not to mention that they continue losing a truckload of money there. The days of 30%+ growth are gone. I think they'll be lucky if they get 15% growth this year. I actually think that's why management have called this a year of investment. They know the low hanging fruit of growth is drying up and need to temper forward expectations about growth. I have it still trading on a forward PE of more than 30. I'm struggling to see how current valuation is justifiable based on that. Sure BAL got a TO at a higher premium to what A2M is trading on. But BAL is worth a fraction of A2M. That reduces the pool of companies that could lob a TO bid dramatically. Simply saying that it should trade on a similar multiple to what BAL is being taken over at is too simplistic.

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Yep sp is gonna pop down to around the 10.75 level. Then all in.

A2M Price at posting: $11.79 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Not Held
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(20min delay)
Last $5.36		Change -0.100(1.83%)		Mkt cap ! $3.851B

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
$5.45	$5.45	$5.32	$14.43M	2.689M

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
12	15127	$5.36

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
$5.37	38757	22

View Market Depth

No.	Vol.	Price($)
26	16363	5.370
17	27177	5.360
13	31432	5.350
10	34891	5.340
7	35891	5.330

Price($)	Vol.	No.
5.380	47286	31
5.390	19014	15
5.400	27925	11
5.410	26920	9
5.420	40260	8

Last trade - 15.40pm 17/09/2024 (20 minute delay)

A2M (ASX) Chart

Chart Update, page-8520

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Buyers (Bids)

Sellers (Offers)

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Chart Update, page-8520

Top Stories

Winsome scoping study proposes low-cost operation for Adina lithium project

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Siren Gold boosts antimony resource by 66% to 14.5Kt at Auld Creek, NZ

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