Obviously someone still looking to get out, maybe I jumped the gun at 28c...lol.
Just had a reread of this from Pattersons Weekly report a month or so back when JML was trading at 44c. Suggests Zinc not the main driver of earnings. Copper price looks to be the key.
Unless there is something very wrong operationally that we're not aware of yet it looks oversold.
INVESTMENT COMMENT
JML’s Jaguar mine is operating at BFS (Bankable Feasibility
Study) levels and at current commodity prices expects more
revenue from copper and silver than zinc in FY09. Two diamond
drill rigs will be following up near mine targets at Jaguar from
September while resource confirmation drilling at Benambra is
underway and another rig will arrive in September. With 4 drill rigs
operating, newsflow will be regular on the mine life extension front.
Despite the fall in the zinc price JML remains one of the lowest cost
producers with copper and silver production covering all site costs.
For FY09 we forecast a $32m FY09 NPAT putting JML on a PE of
7.0 times FY09. With strong and growing leverage to copper we
retain our BUY.
Copper pays for zinc production: Now that recoveries are at
BFS levels, high copper prices and an even stronger outlook and
copper grades we forecast zinc cash costs for FY09 of US$0.08/
lb.
Greater Copper leverage than Zinc: Given the strong copper
price and growing copper production from Jaguar and later
Benambra JML now has greater leverage to copper than zinc. A
10% increase the copper price increases our DCF valuation by
20cps or 18% while a 10% increase in the zinc price lifts it 3cps
or 3%.
Benambra: Resource confirmation drilling is underway. We believe
the market is currently subscribing zero value to the Benambra
deposit however we believe with combined resource expected to
be 12.3mt at 2.3% copper, 4.7% zinc, 38g/t silver and 1.0g/t gold,
Benambra will demand 50% of JML’s value within 12 months. First
assay results are expected to begin filtering back within 4 weeks and
the first step towards realising its value is confirming the resource
which remains on track for CY end. Extensive work has been carried
out on the Wilga and Currawong orebodies significantly de-risking
all pre-production activities ahead of FY09 feasibility studies, FY10
construction and late FY11 commissioning.
Recent $50m equity raising @ $0.80/share: Once Palmary’s
27% is approved by FIRB (we don’t expect any problems given
Palmary is only maintaining its position not increasing) JML’s
net cash position is circa $9M following the proceeds from the
placement. The Jaguar operation has been cashflow positive
since the end of May and first debt repayments are not required
for 12 months
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