Nick,
I suggest that a cartel price must be at least as high as the production cost of the participant with the highest opex.
OCP may (or may not) be able to supply a major portion of the export market within a few years, but crucially they won't be able to supply all of it. Therefore consumers must rely on other sources, and so long as they can afford it, the price of RP will be determined by the operating cost of the least efficient producer. As OCP will not keep their prices low when others are achieving a higher price.
bby, page-73
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