Leading indicators of an economic contraction, page-607

Update on these traffic lights:

- the US yield curve needs to remain negative for 4-6 months then start rising again - Red
- the gdp weighted global yield curve needs to turn negative then start rising again - Red
- US LEI index needs to be high but declining over several months - Green
- signs of euphoria must be present - Amber
- US unemployment rate low, trough formed and starting to rise - Green

2 Red
1 Amber
2 Green