BLG (ASX) New CEO required

Originally posted by awg801: ↑

I think not.

BLG have raised money and invested in facility expansion and tool upscaling to commercial levels.

The success of upscaling is critical to the quantum of any commercial deal. If you ink a deal before such upscaling is proven, you will likely be doing so at a discount due to the higher level of risk. Once BLG embarked on that recent investment, any deals would have to assume a successful outcome. I believe the reason they knew the Lumileds deal would be concluded one way or another quickly is because they new the proposition to Lumileds was simple. Are you ready to commit to ongoing exclusivity and a deal - yes or no. Lumileds was not ready and so they pulled the plug on exclusivity and announced the tunnel junctions for all. BLG is confident of the upscaling, and as such will not be doing discounted deals. Giles indicated this in one of his recent presentations (sorry - can't remember which one).

We now have to wait for the G4 upscale to be proven successful to the market. Remember, it is not until the G4 work is complete that a commercial scale RPCVD platform will exist any where is the world. Yes - A world first. There are no machine sales or retrofits because there is nothing to sell. The manufacturer of the G4 will be across the details of the G4 RPCVD transformation and will be well placed to decide how it wants to proceed if the upgrade is successful. They should be able to start retrofits quickly and then decide how to incorporate the technology into their products.

I believe it is best to wait until they complete there current commercialisation plans.

It is also important to note the laser diode business plans. This is a path to commercialisation that limits the amount of dependency on others. It is a high margin business which can be serviced with their current RPCVD facilities. This business unit along with Epiblu will minimise the additional cash BLG may (or may not) require.

Tunnel junctions are a big thing. The current MOCVD technology can't make them commercially viable for mainstream applications. RPCVD tunnel junctions are a (potential) game changer.

I believe the current management has done well. Giles got two cap raising away with the share price above 30c.They have a strategy for getting customers engaged and developing new products that leverage RPCVD capabilities.

Remember the vision now is for RPCVD to become a mainstream technology. Not a niche for certain applications. The market opportunity is huge. Commercialisation is only just starting!

Anyone not happy with management should just sell. Do you really think holding will change anything? Your votes won't be enough to kick them out. If you are right about management, now might be the best exit opportunity you get.

There are small cap investors out there who are looking for short term opportunities and aren't prepared to wait. That strategy also applies to small private funds (confirmed to me in a recent phone discussion). The price rise leading up to the Lumileds deal may have been a case in point. Once they saw no short term deal, they exited. At 15c, they still would have more than doubled their money if they got in in the 5-8c range.

I believe it is just best to wait to see if our recent investments bears fruit.

My 2 cents.

Expand

Hi awg,
You present a very good case and I agree with most of what you say to the extent that I have been topping up when the opportunities have arisen in the quiet times.
But I do still have some reservations.
Regarding the new laser diode venture, there is more to the market than just making chips.

For those that want to get some sort of perspective on what is out there at the moment in terms of established suppliers of laser diodes, and what may lie ahead for BLG, take a peek here:
https://www.ipgphotonics.com/en/products/lasers/diode-laser-systems

Cheers all

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Last 0.9¢		Change -0.001(5.26%)		Mkt cap ! $23.18M

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