Rightio, let's approach from a different angle, applying the KISS principle and do a simple revenue minus cost calculation:
Most meaningful (profitable) revenue comes from the RKEF lines, i.e. ignore Hengjaya mine revenue/profit.
On 100% basis, Hengjaya has shown production rate of 13,400 tonnes per month (160,800 t p.a.) of NPI for the past couple of months, so let's assume that is 'the norm' for both Heng and Ranger once at steady state.
Ni content in NPI appears to be averaging about 13.8%
Cash costs seem to be averaging ~US$7550.
LME nickel price reached US$15,000/tonne before 'the disconnect' with IMIP price happened as stated in the most recent quarterly report. Assume this is an upper limit.
Assume IMIP price is 90% of LME price
IMIP Ni price in Jan-Mar was US$12,800, and US$12,000 in Apr-Jun.
Assume AU$ = 0.69 US$
Assume 90% operating time (10% downtime) on 80% line ownership
Spreadsheet and graph below shows impact of IMIP Ni price from 9500/t to 13500/t on cashflow (revenue minus cost).I am ignoring D&A as that does not affect cashflow. I am looking at IMIP price US$12,000-13,000 as most likely window (highlighted in green).
Given the tax holiday, the only major costs I can think of offhand are loan interest, maintenance and corporate costs. I also appreciate we are running very well operationally at the moment. So feel free to apply a larger discount as seen fit. But using the stated assumptions, the free cashflow arising from the likely IMIP price (shaded green) is still attractive.
As a secondary KISS check, last Q saw US$50.2M EBITDA from RKEF lines (100% basis). That is US$201M p.a. or AU$291M p.a. 80% of this is AU$233M, which falls in my green zone above. You can see I'm expecting them to go to 80% ownership.
So, if we owe ~US$70M as at 30/9/19, interest for the quarter @8% (assume) is US$1.4m, but nett cashflow is US$30M per quarter, so assume US$30M clear. Debt is US$40M by 31/12/19. Then US$10M by 31/3/20, whereupon they buy 20% more of Heng for US$60M and so debt is US$70M and cashflow now is US$35M/quarter. By 30/6/20, debt is US$35M, and $0 at 30/9/20, whereupon they buy the next 20% of Ranger. Debt is now US$60M, and cashflow now is US$40M/quarter. At 31/12/20, they owe US$20M, by 31/3/21 they are +US$20M, and 30/6/21 +US$60M or AU 5 cents per share. Thereafter earning ~AU 14 cps p.a, or PER of ~4. All assuming the same metrics as per above. Sorry for the over exuberance on the earlier post, but still a gentle buy I think. Sentiment changed accordingly.
(20min delay)