why oil wont fall below 100, page-7

Imagine where oil would be without the credit crisis in the USA.

"Preliminary data indicates that global consumption rose by roughly 500,000 barrels per day (bbl/d) during the first half of 2008 compared with year-earlier levels, as a 1.3-million bbl/d rise in consumption outside of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) was partially countered by an 800,000 bbl/d drop in U.S. consumption compared with year-earlier levels ... Total world oil consumption is expected to grow by a little over 1 million bbl/d during the second half of 2008 and by almost 1 million bbl/d in 2009 compared with year-earlier levels."

The troubling reflection about 2008 so far is although the starting gun for alternative arrangements has so obviously fired, there are almost no starters. The demand reduction in the USA is mostly descretionary choice and further falls will become more inelastic to price increase until we see changes in living , electric rail, electric cars, public transport etc.

If the oil price is so USA centric, then their "largest demand fall in 26 years" and temporary rise in crude inventories may cause POO to fall to US$90, but it will only be a temporary aberration against the long term trend.
When their winter comes they must heat or freeze. If they change to electricy en mass, their system will not cope.

http://gristmill.grist.org/story/2008/8/21/104326/875/

Oil available for export is decreasing by depletion rates plus demand increases within the exporting countries themselves, especially Russia and Mid East.

If you thought the last 12 months were interesting for oil, I recon the next 12 months will be worse. The lead times for change are just too great.