WTF?, page-19

Colin

"So just work on Value of 3 producing assets
Definitely worth $1 billion AUD in my mind"

Where do you get your $AUD1 billion valuation for the remaining 3 producing mines of OGC? If you are correct then given there are around 600 million shares/CDIs on issue (on the TSX and ASX) then a valuation of $aud 1 billion implies the shares the are worth only around $1.70.

To me OGC's valuation has been based on future earnings promised by around 2024 when Wahi is supposed to be producing over 200k ounces (I think the CEO said they are aiming for 250k ounces) and Haile does over 200k ounces per annum.

Dipidio now can not be valued - and its actually now a dead weight in keeping a lot of staff there on full pay while they try to sort out the mess.

Macraes is a solid higher cost/180k ounce pa mine for another 5 years.

But given the capex spend and the closure of Dipidio it seems that OGC is back into borrowing phase, at least until they have first sorted out Haile in a couple of years time. In the meantime they will be paying dividends out of borrowings the way RSG does.

This selldown may turn out to be more than end of year tax loss selling. Perhaps the north Americans are waking up to OGC being a golden fakir.

I do expect OGC to recover $3 at some stage - it always has in the past. But it would not surprise me to see OGC trading at $2.00 if the USD POG tanks (Haile's valuation is especially affected by the USD POG).

A rise in the USD POG back around USD1550 could get the share price back to $3.50 on hopium.

loki