Bell Potter lifts target to A$4.40/Share Vs A$3.75, page-34

I think it is all just 'timeline engineering' - why would ACAD pay us any of the purported royalties and take on all the development costs, with the MC being relatively insignificant compared to what you might ultimately end up paying them (NEU). Treagus gets this IMO, so why not up the ante and throw Torreya into the mix and declare it is all on the table. What is there to lose, if, it all remains confidential? I guess ROW rights to another party might muddy the waters for ACAD, more so if you get territory rights going with multiple players. ACAD is now potentially dealing with others, just untidy I'd say, from their perspective. Again Treagus knows this I reckon, it is about the only point of leverage NEU have, and if the dollars from a ROW deal or two help move the share price up then ACAD pay more, again not ideal from ACADs perspective.

Is it as simple as the current NEU MC 250 million (x) + 440 million (future payouts saved) (y based on P3 success) = roughly 690 million or about $7 AUD as a ball park business case (perhaps pressure point) for current negotiations from the ACAD view of things? Change the value of (x) which is what a ROW deal would do presumably, plus the untidiness of bringing in others, might prompt action on ACAD's part to lock in a deal sooner rather than later. Sure, they'll want some early anecdotal feedback from the trial sites to help consider the risk of success, but hey, you don't get it all your own way. Conversely, cap the value of (x) only helps in negotiations, I'd have thought, from the ACAD view of the world.

I will note that once again, this leaves out any value ascribed to 2591, which so often seems the case for this molecule in the past. But that should not be the case. But how to value it?

Happy to have others pick apart and critique the thinking here, it's a pretty basic analysis, granted!